Data F.C.data F.C.
Brasileirão Série B · Round 38
Estádio Jacy Scaff · Londrina · 36,056 seats
Londrina35%Draw 28%37%Náutico
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Londrina and Náutico Close Série B Seeking Recovery in Final Round

Teams End Their Journey in the Competition After Recent Stumbles and Project a Positive Farewell

The Londrina hosts the Náutico this Wednesday, at 7 pm, at the Estádio Jacy Scaff, for the 38th and final round of the Brasileirão Série B. The duel marks the farewell of both clubs in the national competition, on a night reserved to close the season.

What's at Stake

The final round brings together two traditional teams seeking a last victory before the end of the calendar. Playing at home, the Tubarão wants to take advantage of the home field to gift its fans at the Estádio Jacy Scaff, while the Timbu travels with the goal of spoiling the local party and scoring away from their domains.

Win Probability

Londrina35.2%Londrina
=
28.2%Draw
Náutico36.6%Náutico

Automatically updated with the latest results. Probabilities may change as teams play.

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000 matches simulated with Poisson distribution + real xG

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LondrinaNeutral
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NáuticoNeutral
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Managers

Manager

Hugo Emanuel Barros Chacon

Londrina

W-D-L: 1-1-4Win rate: 17%
Favourite formation: 3-5-1Avg first sub: 51′Subs per game: 4.8

Manager

Bruno Pivetti

Náutico

W-D-L: 2-3-5Win rate: 20%
Favourite formation: 4-5-1Avg first sub: 46.7′Subs per game: 5

Probable lineups

Probable

Projected from the last 5 matches. Dots indicate starter frequency; suspended players are shown faded.

Who arrives hotter

6.49Avg rating
Últimas notas: 6.8 · 6.8 · 7.1 · 6.7 · 6.5In form: João Andrade
6.85Avg rating
Últimas notas: 7.3 · 7 · 7.5 · 7.9 · 7.3In form: Gastón Guruceaga

Londrina

Manager: Hugo Emanuel Barros Chacon

2-4-3

Starters

Goalkeeper

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Bench

Náutico

Manager: Bruno Pivetti

4-4-0

Starters

Goalkeeper

Defenders

Midfielders

Bench

Road to the Match

The recent moment of the teams is one of oscillation, since both sum exactly one victory, one draw, and three defeats in the last five games. The Paraná team comes from three consecutive setbacks against Botafogo-SP, América Mineiro, and CRB, having previously beaten Cuiabá and drawn with Athletic Club. The Pernambucanos also arrive after a defeat to CRB, interspersed with a triumph over Avaí, a setback against Juventude, a draw against Goiás, and a stumble against Vila Nova FC.

Recent Form

Londrina

LLLWD
L0-4vs Botafogo-SP
L1-3vs América Mineiro
L1-2vs CRB
W1-0vs Cuiabá
D2-2vs Athletic Club
Rate: 27%GF: 5GA: 11

Náutico

LWLDL
L0-3vs CRB
W1-0vs Avaí
L0-4vs Juventude
D0-0vs Goiás
L0-2vs Vila Nova FC
Rate: 27%GF: 1GA: 9

Recent results

LondrinaNáutico

Venue performance

Londrina

Home games
5W3D6L14 games

43%

Win rate

1.5

Goals scored/game

1.1

Goals conceded/game

Náutico

Away games
1W6D7L14 games

21%

Win rate

1.1

Goals scored/game

1.9

Goals conceded/game

Tactical Analysis

The statistical analysis points to one of the most balanced confrontations of the round, with a slight advantage for the visitors. The projections indicate a 35.7% probability of victory for the alvirrubra team, against 31.7% chances of triumph for the home team. The draw also emerges as a highly plausible hypothesis for the night, concentrating 32.6% of the possibilities within the models.

Averages (last 6 months)

LondrinaNáutico

Overview

46.7Ball possession (%)56.4
2.1Big chances1.8
4.9Corner kicks6.1
1.3Expected goals1.4
13.3Fouls15.9
2.2Yellow cards2.6

Overview

1.4Expected goals1.4
4.2Shots on target4.9
14.4Total shots16.5

Season stats — radar

LondrinaNáutico

Standings

PosTeamJVEDGPGCSGPts
1Grêmio Novorizontino372010766323470
2Juventude371911749262368
3Vila Nova FC37199953381566
4Criciúma37188113831762
5Fortaleza371614744331162
6CRB37177135751658
7Goiás37177133941-258
8Atlético Goianiense371513945351058
9Sport Recife371413105042855
10Operário-PR37159134950-154
11São Bernardo3714101352421052
12Botafogo-SP37149144539651
13Cuiabá371114123432247
14Athletic Club371114124444047
15Náutico371210154049-946
16Ceará371110163847-943
17Avaí37117193547-1240
18Londrina3788214558-1332
19América Mineiro3785242755-2829
20Ponte Preta3736282179-5815

W/D/L (last 6 months)

Londrina

V 7E 6D 16

Náutico

V 8E 9D 12

Head to Head

6 wins Londrina · 2 draws · 2 wins Náutico

DateHomeScoreAwayStadium
Náutico2-1LondrinaEstádio dos Aflitos
Londrina0-2Náutico-
Londrina3-2Náutico-
Náutico1-2Londrina-
Londrina2-0Náutico-
Náutico1-2Londrina-
Londrina0-0Náutico-
Náutico1-2Londrina-
Londrina0-0Náutico-
Náutico0-2Londrina-

H2H goals history

LondrinaNáutico

Goals by Minute Range

LondrinaNáutico

Average goals per half

1st half2nd half

Match Outlook

Without margin for new tests, the match tends to be disputed inch by inch in the midfield. The need to give a positive response after unstable defensive performances in recent weeks should make both sides adopt cautious attitudes. The final whistle will represent the final point in a long 38-round journey in Série B.

Top Scorers

Last 6 months

Londrina

Bruno Santos⚽ 8
João Vitor⚽ 5
Igor Bahia⚽ 3
Herbert⚽ 3
Gilberto⚽ 2

Náutico

Vinícius⚽ 5
Dodô⚽ 4
Jean Carlos⚽ 3
Todinho⚽ 3
Derek Freitas⚽ 3

Unavailable / Suspended

Based on current data. May change before match day.

Londrina

Wallace Reis

Reason: 3 yellows

Suspended against: Náutico

Caio Rodrigues

Reason: 3 yellows

Suspended against: Náutico

Náutico

Ryan

Reason: 3 yellows

Suspended against: Londrina

Kaua Almeida da Costa

Reason: 3 yellows

Suspended against: Londrina