Wallace Reis
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Náutico
Londrina and Náutico Close Série B Seeking Recovery in Final Round
Teams End Their Journey in the Competition After Recent Stumbles and Project a Positive Farewell
The Londrina hosts the Náutico this Wednesday, at 7 pm, at the Estádio Jacy Scaff, for the 38th and final round of the Brasileirão Série B. The duel marks the farewell of both clubs in the national competition, on a night reserved to close the season.
What's at Stake
The final round brings together two traditional teams seeking a last victory before the end of the calendar. Playing at home, the Tubarão wants to take advantage of the home field to gift its fans at the Estádio Jacy Scaff, while the Timbu travels with the goal of spoiling the local party and scoring away from their domains.
35.2%Londrina
36.6%NáuticoAutomatically updated with the latest results. Probabilities may change as teams play.
10,000 matches simulated with Poisson distribution + real xG
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Managers
Manager
Hugo Emanuel Barros Chacon
Londrina
Manager
Bruno Pivetti
Náutico
Probable lineups
ProbableProjected from the last 5 matches. Dots indicate starter frequency; suspended players are shown faded.
Who arrives hotter
Londrina
Manager: Hugo Emanuel Barros Chacon
Starters
Goalkeeper
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards
Bench
Náutico
Manager: Bruno Pivetti
Starters
Goalkeeper
Defenders
Midfielders
Bench
Road to the Match
The recent moment of the teams is one of oscillation, since both sum exactly one victory, one draw, and three defeats in the last five games. The Paraná team comes from three consecutive setbacks against Botafogo-SP, América Mineiro, and CRB, having previously beaten Cuiabá and drawn with Athletic Club. The Pernambucanos also arrive after a defeat to CRB, interspersed with a triumph over Avaí, a setback against Juventude, a draw against Goiás, and a stumble against Vila Nova FC.
Londrina
Náutico
Londrina
Home games43%
Win rate
1.5
Goals scored/game
1.1
Goals conceded/game
Náutico
Away games21%
Win rate
1.1
Goals scored/game
1.9
Goals conceded/game
Tactical Analysis
The statistical analysis points to one of the most balanced confrontations of the round, with a slight advantage for the visitors. The projections indicate a 35.7% probability of victory for the alvirrubra team, against 31.7% chances of triumph for the home team. The draw also emerges as a highly plausible hypothesis for the night, concentrating 32.6% of the possibilities within the models.
| Pos | Team | J | V | E | D | GP | GC | SG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grêmio Novorizontino | 37 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 66 | 32 | 34 | 70 |
| 2 | Juventude | 37 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 23 | 68 |
| 3 | Vila Nova FC | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 53 | 38 | 15 | 66 |
| 4 | Criciúma | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 62 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | 37 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 62 |
| 6 | CRB | 37 | 17 | 7 | 13 | 57 | 51 | 6 | 58 |
| 7 | Goiás | 37 | 17 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 | Atlético Goianiense | 37 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 58 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 55 |
| 10 | Operário-PR | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 52 |
| 12 | Botafogo-SP | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 51 |
| 13 | Cuiabá | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 | Náutico | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 | Ceará | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 | Avaí | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 | Londrina | 37 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 37 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 37 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 21 | 79 | -58 | 15 |
Londrina
Náutico
6 wins Londrina · 2 draws · 2 wins Náutico
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Náutico | 2-1 | Londrina | Estádio dos Aflitos | |
| Londrina | 0-2 | Náutico | - | |
| Londrina | 3-2 | Náutico | - | |
| Náutico | 1-2 | Londrina | - | |
| Londrina | 2-0 | Náutico | - | |
| Náutico | 1-2 | Londrina | - | |
| Londrina | 0-0 | Náutico | - | |
| Náutico | 1-2 | Londrina | - | |
| Londrina | 0-0 | Náutico | - | |
| Náutico | 0-2 | Londrina | - |
Match Outlook
Without margin for new tests, the match tends to be disputed inch by inch in the midfield. The need to give a positive response after unstable defensive performances in recent weeks should make both sides adopt cautious attitudes. The final whistle will represent the final point in a long 38-round journey in Série B.
Last 6 months
Londrina
Náutico
Based on current data. May change before match day.
Londrina
Wallace Reis
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Náutico
Caio Rodrigues
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Náutico
Náutico
Ryan
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Londrina
Kaua Almeida da Costa
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Londrina