Calvin Bassey
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Newcastle United
Fulham bets on home factor to overcome oscillating Newcastle
Separated by narrow margins in projections, hosts try to maintain regularity against a rival seeking immediate recovery
Craven Cottage hosts Fulham and Newcastle United this Saturday, at 3 pm, for the tenth round of the Premier League. Both teams take to the field seeking affirmation in the championship after distinct recent sequences in the season.
What's at Stake
The Fulham comes to the confrontation supported by a more stable phase, accumulating two wins, two draws, and only one defeat in their last five games. The London team comes from a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa, maintaining a consistent scoring sequence. On the other hand, Newcastle United tries to rediscover the path to triumphs after being surpassed by Everton 1-0, totaling two wins and three defeats in the last five performances.
36.0%Fulham
33.1%Newcastle UnitedAutomatically updated with the latest results. Probabilities may change as teams play.
10,000 matches simulated with Poisson distribution + real xG
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Managers
Manager
Álvaro Arbeloa
Fulham
Manager
Matthias Jaissle
Newcastle United
Probable lineups
ProbableProjected from the last 5 matches. Dots indicate starter frequency; suspended players are shown faded.
Who arrives hotter
Fulham
Manager: Álvaro Arbeloa
Starters
Goalkeeper
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards
Bench
Newcastle United
Manager: Matthias Jaissle
Starters
Goalkeeper
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards
Bench
Road to the Match
The estimates for the duel point to a scenario of great balance, reflecting the proximity of forces between the clubs. The hosts carry a slight favoritism, with 36% probability of victory, driven by the atmosphere in London. Meanwhile, the visiting team appears with 33.1% chances of surprising and taking the three points home, while the possibility of a draw is calculated at 30.9%.
Fulham
Newcastle United
Fulham
Home games47%
Win rate
1.6
Goals scored/game
1.4
Goals conceded/game
Newcastle United
Away games40%
Win rate
1.2
Goals scored/game
2.0
Goals conceded/game
Tactical Analysis
Defensive consistency has been an important point for Fulham, which suffered few goals in recent commitments and showed safety against Coventry City and Hull City. In turn, Newcastle needs to stem the oscillation of results to not give up ground in the table, especially after recent stumbles away from their domains. The trend is for a very studied tactical confrontation, where efficiency in the few created chances will define the score.
| Pos | Team | J | V | E | D | GP | GC | SG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Coventry City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Hull City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Leeds United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Liverpool FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Newcastle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fulham
Newcastle United
3 wins Fulham · 0 draws · 7 wins Newcastle United
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 2-0 | Newcastle United | Craven Cottage | |
| Newcastle United | 2-1 | Fulham | - | |
| Newcastle United | 2-1 | Fulham | - | |
| Newcastle United | 1-2 | Fulham | - | |
| Fulham | 3-1 | Newcastle United | - | |
| Fulham | 0-1 | Newcastle United | - | |
| Fulham | 0-2 | Newcastle United | - | |
| Newcastle United | 3-0 | Fulham | - | |
| Newcastle United | 1-0 | Fulham | - | |
| Fulham | 1-4 | Newcastle United | - |
Match Outlook
Playing in front of their crowd, Fulham will try to impose their usual rhythm to transform the slight statistical favoritism into a real advantage on the scoreboard. Newcastle bets on the ability to respond quickly to interrupt the negative sequence and return to score consistently in the tournament. With such narrow margins in the forecasts, the details throughout the ninety minutes will dictate the course of the match in London.
Last 6 months
Fulham
Newcastle United
Based on current data. May change before match day.
Fulham
Calvin Bassey
Reason: 3 yellows
Suspended against: Newcastle United
Newcastle United
Jacob Ramsey
Reason: Red card
Suspended against: Fulham