Stefan Posch
Reason: Red card
Suspended against: FC Bayern München
Bayern visits Mainz at MEWA Arena focused on maintaining positive streak
Boosted by recent unbeaten run, Bavarians measure forces with host seeking to rediscover the path to victories
The ninth round of the Bundesliga reserves a direct clash at MEWA Arena this Saturday, November 7, 2026, at 2:30 pm. The 1. FSV Mainz 05 plays in front of its crowd seeking recovery in the German championship, while the FC Bayern München arrives with the clear goal of scoring away from home.
What's at Stake
With the ninth matchday underway, the teams focus entirely on the MEWA Arena pitch to consolidate their objectives in the tournament. Mainz tries to make the most of the home advantage against a traditional opponent, while Bayern seeks to impose its rhythm to add precious points away from its domains.
11.6%1. FSV Mainz 05
78.6%FC Bayern MünchenAutomatically updated with the latest results. Probabilities may change as teams play.
10,000 matches simulated with Poisson distribution + real xG
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Managers
Manager
Urs Fischer
1. FSV Mainz 05
Manager
Aaron Danks
FC Bayern München
Probable lineups
ProbableProjected from the last 5 matches. Dots indicate starter frequency; suspended players are shown faded.
Who arrives hotter
1. FSV Mainz 05
Manager: Urs Fischer
Starters
Goalkeeper
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards
Bench
FC Bayern München
Manager: Aaron Danks
Starters
Goalkeeper
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards
Bench
Road to the Match
The recent record shows distinct paths for the two sides. Bayern arrives boosted by a mark of 3 wins and 2 draws in the last five games, including triumphs against Atlético Madrid (2-0), SC Freiburg (3-1), and RB Leipzig (6-1), in addition to draws by 2-2 against Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal. On the other hand, Mainz has 2 wins and 3 losses in the previous five commitments, coming from consecutive defeats against SV 07 Elversberg (4-1) and SV Werder Bremen (3-2), although it has recently beaten FC Schalke 04 and Borussia M'gladbach.
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
1. FSV Mainz 05
Home games8%
Win rate
1.5
Goals scored/game
2.5
Goals conceded/game
FC Bayern München
Away games67%
Win rate
2.0
Goals scored/game
1.2
Goals conceded/game
Tactical Analysis
The statistical analysis points to an expressive favoritism for the visitors, who hold 78.6% probability of victory even acting away from home. Mainz tries to contradict the projections, since it appears with 11.6% chances of securing the home win, while the possibility of a tie in the score is quoted at 9.8%.
| Pos | Team | J | V | E | D | GP | GC | SG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Köln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Borussia M'gladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | FC Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | FC Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | SV 07 Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | SV Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
2 wins 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1 draws · 7 wins FC Bayern München
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 3-4 | FC Bayern München | - | |
| FC Bayern München | 2-2 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | - | |
| FC Bayern München | 3-0 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | - | |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2-1 | FC Bayern München | - | |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0-4 | FC Bayern München | - | |
| FC Bayern München | 8-1 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | - | |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1-3 | FC Bayern München | - | |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 3-1 | FC Bayern München | - | |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0-4 | FC Bayern München | - | |
| FC Bayern München | 6-2 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | - |
Match Outlook
Given these elements, the trend is for an offensive posture from Bayern to control possession and break through the defensive lines from the initial minutes. Meanwhile, Mainz will need maximum efficiency in counterattacks to surprise the Bavarians and return to adding positive results within their stadium.
Last 6 months
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
Based on current data. May change before match day.
1. FSV Mainz 05
Stefan Posch
Reason: Red card
Suspended against: FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München
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