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MEWA Arena · Mainz · 34,000 seats
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Bayern visits Mainz at MEWA Arena focused on maintaining positive streak

Boosted by recent unbeaten run, Bavarians measure forces with host seeking to rediscover the path to victories

The ninth round of the Bundesliga reserves a direct clash at MEWA Arena this Saturday, November 7, 2026, at 2:30 pm. The 1. FSV Mainz 05 plays in front of its crowd seeking recovery in the German championship, while the FC Bayern München arrives with the clear goal of scoring away from home.

What's at Stake

With the ninth matchday underway, the teams focus entirely on the MEWA Arena pitch to consolidate their objectives in the tournament. Mainz tries to make the most of the home advantage against a traditional opponent, while Bayern seeks to impose its rhythm to add precious points away from its domains.

Win Probability

1. FSV Mainz 0511.6%1. FSV Mainz 05
=
9.8%Draw
FC Bayern München78.6%FC Bayern München

Automatically updated with the latest results. Probabilities may change as teams play.

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000 matches simulated with Poisson distribution + real xG

Adjust the scenario

1. FSV Mainz 05Neutral
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FC Bayern MünchenNeutral
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Adjust the controls above and click simulate to see the results distribution.

Managers

Manager

Urs Fischer

1. FSV Mainz 05

W-D-L: 3-1-4Win rate: 38%
Favourite formation: 3-5-2Avg first sub: 66.4′Subs per game: 4.9

Manager

Aaron Danks

FC Bayern München

W-D-L: 0-0-0Win rate: —

Probable lineups

Probable

Projected from the last 5 matches. Dots indicate starter frequency; suspended players are shown faded.

Who arrives hotter

6.83Avg rating
Últimas notas: 6.8 · 9.5 · 7.1 · 8.7 · 6.3In form: Anthony Caci
7.21Avg rating
Últimas notas: 8.6 · 8.6 · 8 · 7.2 · 8.6In form: Joshua Kimmich

1. FSV Mainz 05

Manager: Urs Fischer

3-5-2

Starters

Goalkeeper

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Bench

FC Bayern München

Manager: Aaron Danks

4-5-1

Starters

Goalkeeper

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Bench

Road to the Match

The recent record shows distinct paths for the two sides. Bayern arrives boosted by a mark of 3 wins and 2 draws in the last five games, including triumphs against Atlético Madrid (2-0), SC Freiburg (3-1), and RB Leipzig (6-1), in addition to draws by 2-2 against Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal. On the other hand, Mainz has 2 wins and 3 losses in the previous five commitments, coming from consecutive defeats against SV 07 Elversberg (4-1) and SV Werder Bremen (3-2), although it has recently beaten FC Schalke 04 and Borussia M'gladbach.

Recent Form

1. FSV Mainz 05

LLWLW
L1-4vs SV 07 Elversberg
L2-3vs SV Werder Bremen
W1-0vs FC Schalke 04
L3-4vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W4-3vs Borussia M'gladbach
Rate: 40%GF: 11GA: 14

FC Bayern München

WDWDW
W2-0vs Atlético Madrid
D2-2vs Borussia Dortmund
W3-1vs SC Freiburg
D2-2vs Arsenal
W6-1vs RB Leipzig
Rate: 73%GF: 15GA: 6

Recent results

1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

Venue performance

1. FSV Mainz 05

Home games
0W1D3L4 games

8%

Win rate

1.5

Goals scored/game

2.5

Goals conceded/game

FC Bayern München

Away games
3W3D0L6 games

67%

Win rate

2.0

Goals scored/game

1.2

Goals conceded/game

Tactical Analysis

The statistical analysis points to an expressive favoritism for the visitors, who hold 78.6% probability of victory even acting away from home. Mainz tries to contradict the projections, since it appears with 11.6% chances of securing the home win, while the possibility of a tie in the score is quoted at 9.8%.

Averages (last 6 months)

1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

Overview

50.1Ball possession (%)63.9
3.9Big chances5.0
5.4Corner kicks7.3
3.3Expected goals2.7
13.8Fouls9.1
2.6Yellow cards1.1

Overview

2.0Expected goals3.2
6.1Shots on target8.5
16.7Total shots21.3

Season stats — radar

1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

Standings

PosTeamJVEDGPGCSGPts
11. FC Köln00000000
21. FC Union Berlin00000000
31. FSV Mainz 0500000000
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen00000000
5Borussia Dortmund00000000
6Borussia M'gladbach00000000
7Eintracht Frankfurt00000000
8FC Augsburg00000000
9FC Bayern München00000000
10FC Schalke 0400000000
11Hamburger SV00000000
12RB Leipzig00000000
13SC Freiburg00000000
14SC Paderborn 0700000000
15SV 07 Elversberg00000000
16SV Werder Bremen00000000
17TSG Hoffenheim00000000
18VfB Stuttgart00000000

W/D/L (last 6 months)

1. FSV Mainz 05

V 4E 1D 4

FC Bayern München

V 9E 5D 0

Head to Head

2 wins 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1 draws · 7 wins FC Bayern München

DateHomeScoreAwayStadium
1. FSV Mainz 053-4FC Bayern München-
FC Bayern München2-21. FSV Mainz 05-
FC Bayern München3-01. FSV Mainz 05-
1. FSV Mainz 052-1FC Bayern München-
1. FSV Mainz 050-4FC Bayern München-
FC Bayern München8-11. FSV Mainz 05-
1. FSV Mainz 051-3FC Bayern München-
1. FSV Mainz 053-1FC Bayern München-
1. FSV Mainz 050-4FC Bayern München-
FC Bayern München6-21. FSV Mainz 05-

H2H goals history

1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

Goals by Minute Range

1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

Average goals per half

1st half2nd half

Match Outlook

Given these elements, the trend is for an offensive posture from Bayern to control possession and break through the defensive lines from the initial minutes. Meanwhile, Mainz will need maximum efficiency in counterattacks to surprise the Bavarians and return to adding positive results within their stadium.

Top Scorers

Last 6 months

1. FSV Mainz 05

Phillip Tietz⚽ 6
Anthony Caci⚽ 3
Sheraldo Becker⚽ 2
Benedict Hollerbach⚽ 2
Phillipp Mwene⚽ 1

FC Bayern München

Harry Kane⚽ 11
Michael Olise⚽ 8
Luis Díaz⚽ 5
Dayot Upamecano⚽ 3
Lennart Karl⚽ 2

Unavailable / Suspended

Based on current data. May change before match day.

1. FSV Mainz 05

Stefan Posch

Reason: Red card

Suspended against: FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München

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