Data F.C.data F.C.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Round 34
Governador Magalhães Pinto · Belo Horizonte · 61,927 seats
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Cruzeiro Defends Spot in G-4 Against Bahia at Mineirão

Separated by four points in the standings, Minas Gerais team tries to consolidate third place while Bahia seeks to shorten the distance to the top

The Governador Magalhães Pinto stadium will host on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 00:30, the match between Cruzeiro and Bahia for the 34th round of the Brazilian Championship Série A. The direct confrontation affects the top group and puts face to face teams that aim for consolidation in the classification table bracket.

What's at Stake

The Cruzeiro team takes to the field occupying the third place in Série A, with 57 points won in 33 matches played. Right behind in the pursuit, Bahia appears in sixth place with 53 points, pressuring the group that also includes Fluminense and Athletico, both with 54. A positive result for the visiting team reduces the difference to just one point in relation to the Minas Gerais team, while a win for the home team helps to open a gap in front of the direct competition.

Win Probability

Cruzeiro54.1%Cruzeiro
=
23.4%Draw
Bahia22.5%Bahia

Automatically updated with the latest results. Probabilities may change as teams play.

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000 matches simulated with Poisson distribution + real xG

Adjust the scenario

CruzeiroNeutral
DefOff
BahiaNeutral
DefOff

Adjust the controls above and click simulate to see the results distribution.

Referee

Rafael Rodrigo Klein

30 games
4.53Yellows / game
0.47Reds / game
3.7′Avg added time

Trend under this referee

Home win 50%Draw 27%Away win 23%
History with Cruzeiro(2j)🟨 4.5🟥 0.5
History with Bahia(4j)🟨 1.5🟥 0

Managers

Manager

Artur Jorge

Cruzeiro

W-D-L: 18-6-10Win rate: 53%
Favourite formation: 4-5-1Avg first sub: 52.2′Subs per game: 4.9

Manager

Rogério Ceni

Bahia

W-D-L: 14-11-9Win rate: 41%
Favourite formation: 4-3-3Avg first sub: 56.7′Subs per game: 5

Probable lineups

Confirmed

Cruzeiro

Manager: Artur Jorge

4-5-1

Starters

Goalkeeper

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Bench

Bahia

Manager: Rogério Ceni

4-5-1

Starters

Goalkeeper

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Bench

Road to the Match

The recent phase of the Minas Gerais team is quite positive, accumulating four wins and one loss in the last five commitments in the national tournament. The team comes boosted by triumphs over Atlético Mineiro, Remo, and Grêmio, in addition to a positive result against São Paulo and a setback against Red Bull Bragantino. On the other hand, the Bahia squad presents a campaign of two wins, one draw, and two losses in the same period, coming after beating São Paulo, drawing with Santos, and registering stumbles against Flamengo and Palmeiras, in addition to the triumph against Mirassol.

Recent Form

Cruzeiro

WWWLW
W1-0vs Atlético Mineiro
W1-0vs Remo
W4-2vs Grêmio
L2-4vs Red Bull Bragantino
W2-0vs São Paulo
Rate: 80%GF: 10GA: 6

Bahia

WDLWL
W3-2vs São Paulo
D1-1vs Santos
L0-3vs Flamengo
W1-0vs Mirassol
L0-1vs Palmeiras
Rate: 47%GF: 5GA: 7

Recent results

CruzeiroBahia

Venue performance

Cruzeiro

Home games
10W3D1L14 games

79%

Win rate

1.9

Goals scored/game

0.7

Goals conceded/game

Bahia

Away games
2W4D5L11 games

30%

Win rate

1.4

Goals scored/game

1.6

Goals conceded/game

Tactical Analysis

Despite the hosts' slightly superior moment, internal statistical models point to a perfectly balanced division for the confrontation. Each of the three possible outcomes has exactly 33.3% probability, demonstrating that favoritism does not lean towards either side at Mineirão. This scenario reflects Bahia's ability to score away from home against top-tier rivals and the weight of Cruzeiro's home-field advantage.

Averages (last 6 months)

CruzeiroBahia

Overview

53.8Ball possession (%)54.6
3.1Big chances2.7
5.6Corner kicks6.0
1.8Expected goals1.4
12.9Fouls13.8
2.7Yellow cards2.4

Overview

1.4Expected goals1.7
5.5Shots on target4.3
15.9Total shots14.9

Season stats — radar

CruzeiroBahia

Standings

PosTeamJVEDGPGCSGPts
1Flamengo34237471294276
2Palmeiras342110362233973
3Cruzeiro33176105246657
4Fluminense33159952421054
5Athletico34159105143854
6Bahia33141184842653
7Atlético Mineiro34148124440450
8Red Bull Bragantino34138134439547
9Santos341211115049147
10São Paulo34128143939044
11Botafogo34119144653-742
12Coritiba34119144051-1142
13Vasco da Gama33118144350-741
14Mirassol341010143948-940
15Vitória33108153548-1338
16Internacional34911143842-438
17Corinthians34910153642-637
18Grêmio34910153847-937
19Remo34611173757-2029
20Chapecoense3349203368-3521

W/D/L (last 6 months)

Cruzeiro

V 16E 6D 6

Bahia

V 8E 7D 6

Head to Head

5 wins Cruzeiro · 3 draws · 2 wins Bahia

DateHomeScoreAwayStadium
Bahia1-2Cruzeiro-
Bahia1-2Cruzeiro-
Cruzeiro3-0Bahia-
Cruzeiro1-1Bahia-
Bahia4-1Cruzeiro-
Cruzeiro3-0Bahia-
Bahia2-2Cruzeiro-
Cruzeiro1-0Bahia-
Bahia2-0Cruzeiro-
Cruzeiro1-1Bahia-

H2H goals history

CruzeiroBahia

Goals by Minute Range

CruzeiroBahia

Average goals per half

1st half2nd half

Match Outlook

With the championship entering its final rounds, the sum of points gained becomes crucial for the aspirations of both clubs in the standings. Cruzeiro tries to distance itself from Fluminense and Athletico's approach in the table, while Bahia needs the result to prevent Atlético Mineiro, seventh-placed with 50 points, from advancing. The 34th round is shaping up as a test of consistency for the ambition of the two teams.

Top Scorers

Last 6 months

Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge⚽ 14
Matheus Pereira⚽ 9
Keny Arroyo⚽ 5
Zé Lucas⚽ 2
Lucas Romero⚽ 2

Bahia

Alejo Véliz⚽ 4
Luciano Juba⚽ 4
Erick Pulga⚽ 4
Erick⚽ 3
David Duarte⚽ 2

Unavailable / Suspended

Based on current data. May change before match day.

Cruzeiro

Matheus Pereira

Reason: 3 yellows

Suspended against: Bahia

William Furtado

Reason: Red card + yellows

Suspended against: Bahia

Bahia

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